Correct Mathematical Analysis?

[Sirenian]

I need confirmation that I am approaching this problem the right way. The problem I am trying to solve is calculating how many Ragged Zombies I will need to kill before having a substantial chance of getting an Expert Ring[1].

The way I have been analyzing this problem is as follows:

Spoiler for ReferenceImage:

Drop Rates...
iRO % = 0.02%
AnimusRO % = iRO*3 = 0.06%

I also know that:
0.06% implies 0.06 successes (drops) out of every 100 trials (kills).
To change 0.06 into a whole number, multiply by 100, such that this ratio should remain true: 0.06/100 = 6/10000.

So, am I correct to say that 6 out of every 10,000 Ragged Zombies should drop an Expert Ring[1]?
Since I just need 1 ring (not 6), based on that assumption I can say that I will need to kill approximately 10000/6=1667 zombies before I get a ring.

I have always wondered if I was thinking of this correctly. Is my analysis correct or am I approaching this the wrong way altogether?
Oh and inb4 someone trolls me over my lame math skills.

[shadowfaux]

Drops work more like a slot machine, say you have 10,000 spaces on your wheel. 6 of those spaces have your Spiritual Ring. When a Ragged Zombie spawns, his slot machine wheel will spin until you kill it. When it dies, its wheel stops and either the item will drop, or it won't based on if it stopped on one of the slots with the Ring. This is why you sometimes will get lucky, and get an item within a few kills, or you may not get one for quite sometime. So I wouldn't say you have to kill 1667 Ragged Zombies before you have a good chance, you just have to get lucky and hope the wheel on its slot machine stops in the right spot.

[Sirenian]

If that is the case, I could also go well beyond 1667 kills before getting a ring?
That is kind of demotivating to think about.

[bLitzkr!eg]

Yes if you keep count of the number of zombie you killed. But I doubt you will. Just focus on killing rather than calculating.

[Razer]

If that is the case, I could also go well beyond 1667 kills before getting a ring?
That is kind of demotivating to think about.

Dont keep calculating/counting - just have fun

[Arkensark]

(1-((99.94/100)^n))*100 = % likelihood after n tries with a drop rate of 0.06%

Therefore: 100 - (0.9994^3) = 0.18%ish of getting at least one, with three 0.06% chances.

You'll notice though that the higher the number of tries you plug in; the further the result differs from just calculating (n * 0.06)%.
I.E. 5000 tries = 95% chance overall of getting one. Rather than (5000 * 0.06) = 300%.

(You can put the formula into google to get a quick result, just make sure n is replaced by a number)

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But as the others have said; just have fun and try not to think too much about it.

[Ledum]

shadowfaux explained it well.
it is more on luck. before igot 2 caramel cardsin just 30 minuteskilling. also got blazer card for killing 1 blazer. that was luck. if youare unlucky like in the case of me killing anubis, i managed to lvl my sniper from 95 to 99 without card dropped. iused to lvl at nameless with no luck of getting expert ring. so what others was saying, just have fun.

[The Mystic]

(1-((99.94/100)^n))*100 = % likelihood after n tries with a drop rate of 0.06%

Therefore: 100 - (0.9994^3) = 0.18%ish of getting at least one, with three 0.06% chances.

You'll notice though that the higher the number of tries you plug in; the further the result differs from just calculating (n * 0.06)%.
I.E. 5000 tries = 95% chance overall of getting one. Rather than (5000 * 0.06) = 300%.

(You can put the formula into google to get a quick result, just make sure n is replaced by a number)

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But as the others have said; just have fun and try not to think too much about it.

^ It's just the roll of the dice, but this server really needs more methods of making money that don't revolve around zeny. There are a few options and that's nice, but there should be more.

[tsukaza13]

Making money that don't revolve around zeny? WUT. Money IS zeny. Or in some cases, ads, but still.

[shadowfaux]

I think Mystic means methods that don't require other people making purchases or selling to NPC. Think Mystic means quests and events that award zeny (?)

[The Mystic]

I think Mystic means methods that don't require other people making purchases or selling to NPC. Think Mystic means quests and events that award zeny (?)

No, I'm sorry but your both wrong. What happens to all this pure zeny we make? Most of it is tossed away into WoE supplies/SQIs and zeny sinks. Pure zeny making is pretty much the only way we have atm to make good money aside from a small handful of methods. But there are MANY items in the ad shop if you set them to the right drop rate or set the mobs that drop them up right, they can stay stable and those maps can prosper as well. All you have to do is average them with common methods and you will have a good money makers. Examples of such things would be Bris ing's,Expert Rings,SQI ingridents. If you balance the drop rate to the ad shop price, they will balance themselves out with the demand of the economy, as long as people don't flood the econ with it from over farming a single particular item too fast. That is why there has to be a lot of them for it to work at decent rates, so everyone doesn't ruin a place too early on. If you need me to explain more I can ;o

[shadowfaux]

So you mean, with Brys ingredients, up their drop rate a bit so their price isn't heavily relied on the cost in the AD shop, but more on players actually farming them and setting the prices themselves?

If I was off again, then yes, would like an explanation xD

[The Mystic]

So you mean, with Brys ingredients, up their drop rate a bit so their price isn't heavily relied on the cost in the AD shop, but more on players actually farming them and setting the prices themselves?

If I was off again, then yes, would like an explanation xD

Your right on target. That kind of farming will stimulate the economy again and get the ball rolling for everyone. Some would QQ that it would make donations go down for the server, but that's crap because no one is gonna farm MVP cards and be able to keep up with demand. Some cards also are farmable for profits. There are many things that can be done to help with this. This is much like when ad voting came out and it get's regulated by players. Everyone is a lot more chilled out about it.

[InterSpectra]

One question I asked a long time ago, but forgot if I got a definite answer to was:  When are the monsters' drop created?

It's relevant because if it's created during spawn of the monster, then it's no longer about killing as many as possible, but rather kill enough for a monster to spawn with the loot, then you'll need to kill the one holding it.

If its dropped items is calculated only when it's killed, then it'll throw all that out. Just kill kill kill.

The former would imply that someone's hard work farming would go to waste because a random person could reap the rewards of the constant monster spawning, and kill the lucky one with the item.

[Ledum]

Drop rate is coded/programed. Like Mystic said it is like roll of the dice. Let's think about a six sided dice. You have 1:6 chance getting the number you want to get, eg 6. First throw you may get the number 6. The next throw you may get the 6 again. The chance of getting the 6 is a lot easier because the dice have only 6 sides.

In the case of drop rate, imagine a dice with 1000 sides and with aRo the drop rate is 3x. So with chance of getting card is .03%. That means that on the dice with 1000 side there are 3 sides that say cards. You might throw the dice once and if you are lucky you get the side that say card. Killing is basically the same as throwing the dice. The more you kill the more chances. It is not affected whether there are many people killing the same monster. They are only throwing the dice. But not the same dice. Each players are holding different dice.

This is what I think. It made me think this way because of the experience I mentioned earlier.

Things will be different if they change the code.