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The 'Other' Section => AnesisRO Archive => Archive => General Questions => Topic started by: dfdarkraiden on September 28, 2008, 12:01:24 am

Title: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: dfdarkraiden on September 28, 2008, 12:01:24 am

I calculated the percent to upgrade armors to +7 and its around 0.144% per muffler. ( 1 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.4 )
Is it even worth it? I checked the percentage to get a +9 muffler (1 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 0.2 ) and it's 0.00576 (Basically 1 out of 200 armors will make +9)

Questions:
Are my calculations correct? Is this way profitable? (Because it doesn't seem like it)

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: Man Of Emperium on September 28, 2008, 12:03:08 am

I think you should multiply those numbers each by 100 to get actual %.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: dfdarkraiden on September 28, 2008, 12:06:59 am

Are you serious? I don't think that would make sense. E.g. finding 60% of 100. (100 x 0.6 = 60)

Just like that

+1 upgrade = 100%
+2 upgrade = 100%
+3 upgrade = 100%
+4 upgrade = 100%
+5 upgrade = 60% (Multiply amount of armors by 0.6)
+6 upgrade = 60% (Multiply amount of armors by 0.6)
+7 upgrade = 40% (Multiply amount of armors by 0.4)

So an amount of 100 mufflers for example.

We can basically cut off +1 - +4 since it's a perfect chance.

So 100 x 0.6 = 60 (60 mufflers will make it to +5)
60 x 0.6 = 36 (36 mufflers will make it to +6)
36 x 0.4 = 14.4 (14 mufflers will make it to +7)

This also means that theres a 14.4% chance for a muffler to reach +7.
(So 1 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.4 = 0.144 x 100 = 14.4)
Are my calculations not correct? Multiplying by 100 seems way too wrong.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: Yagare on September 28, 2008, 01:02:57 am

14.4 Is correct sir /ok.
But, honestly, barely anybody buys +7 mufflers[1] so you'll want to rather get them to  +8/9/10.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: Nyonics on September 28, 2008, 06:05:10 am

I'm not doing any difficult math here but I've seen overupped armors go for about 30 times the price of a normal one. So I'd imagine that, due to the difficulty involved in making a +9/+10 and the fact that you can't get them any other way people can raise the prices on them to the point where it's a profitable venture, which they probably already do or they would waste much time selling them to us. I can sort of imagine that there's just this community of really rich people willing to take a hit to the wallet so that there exist some overupped armors for sale in the world, but I seriously doubt it's just that.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: rilla. on September 28, 2008, 12:03:32 pm

it also depends alot on luck, and where you level. Niff for example gives you a constant stream of mants/muffs, hence why upped versions of these are quite cheap. And luck, real life luck.... you can get a +10 in one try, its not unheard of, just uncommon. In that case, very little zeny invested into the final product, with very big profit.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: dfdarkraiden on September 28, 2008, 12:04:31 pm

Well as you can see through the calculations, it's not profitable.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: Man Of Emperium on September 28, 2008, 12:06:15 pm

Quote from: dfdarkraiden on September 28, 2008, 12:01:24 am

I calculated the percent to upgrade armors to +7 and its around 0.144% per muffler. ( 1 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.4 )
Is it even worth it? I checked the percentage to get a +9 muffler (1 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 0.2 ) and it's 0.00576 (Basically 1 out of 200 armors will make +9)

Questions:
Are my calculations correct? Is this way profitable? (Because it doesn't seem like it)

I was saying that your numbers on how it was 0.144% were off - since it's actually 14.4%.

People upgrade armors because it's easier to sell one +9 than it is to sell 20 +7s. That, and sometimes people get lucky.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: Narshe on September 28, 2008, 12:21:14 pm

I'm pretty sure its

4->5 60%
5->6 40%
6->7 40%
7->8 20%
8->9 20%
9->10 10%

Which would make getting +7 about 9.6% or something.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: dfdarkraiden on September 28, 2008, 12:24:04 pm

I figured the mistake last night, but then I'd have to retype all the calculations, so I didn't bother lol.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: Duplighost on September 28, 2008, 01:40:57 pm

Quote from: dfdarkraiden on September 28, 2008, 12:06:59 am

So 100 x 0.6 = 60 (60 mufflers will make it to +5)
60 x 0.6 = 36 (36 mufflers will make it to +6)
36 x 0.4 = 14.4 (14 mufflers will make it to +7)

This is not correct. The % chances are per muffler not per every 100 muffler. All of them have a 60, 36, 14.4 % chances to upgrade in each attempt, which means that the % missing is a fail possibility. This leads to the conclusion that all of the 100 mufflers could fail.

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: Yagare on September 28, 2008, 04:45:55 pm

Quote from: Duplighost on September 28, 2008, 01:40:57 pm

Quote from: dfdarkraiden on September 28, 2008, 12:06:59 am

So 100 x 0.6 = 60 (60 mufflers will make it to +5)
60 x 0.6 = 36 (36 mufflers will make it to +6)
36 x 0.4 = 14.4 (14 mufflers will make it to +7)

This is not correct. The % chances are per muffler not per every 100 muffler. All of them have a 60, 36, 14.4 % chances to upgrade in each attempt, which means that the % missing is a fail possibility. This leads to the conclusion that all of the 100 mufflers could fail.

Or all the hundred could go up. Statistics experts would die if something like that happened tough :P

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: dputra705 on September 28, 2008, 10:56:29 pm

My table to calculate the ROI to ugprade the Muff

Market price
------------
Muf[1] = 90k
Upgrade NPC  = 2K?
Elu = 10K (current price)



   +?   Successful Rate         Accumurate %  No of Muf Needed    Cost to Make      Market Price     Percentage of ROI
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   1   100%                    100.00%               1.00               $102,000.00     102,000.00        100%
   2   100%                    100.00%               1.00               $114,000.00     114,000.00        100%
   3   100%                    100.00%               1.00               $126,000.00     126,000.00        100%
   4   100%                    100.00%               1.00               $138,000.00     150,000.00        109%
   5   60%                              60.00%               1.67               $190,000.00                  
   6   40%                             24.00%                       4.17               $390,000.00       
   7   40%                               9.60%                     10.42               $965,000.00     1,500,000.00     155%
   8   20%                               1.92%                     52.08            $5,090,000.00     3,500,000.00      69%
   9   20%                               0.38%                   260.42          $28,215,000.00     10,000,000.00    35%
   10   10%                               0.04%                2,604.17        $312,590,000.00     30,000,000.00    10%
                     

Obviously, best ROI is at about +7. and
It need to be extreme luckly to get  a +10Muff.....

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: ChaoticAshX on September 28, 2008, 11:12:37 pm

lol if dputra705 is right...

how much is my +10 devi worth? =)

can you stay stacks on deck?

Title: Re: Do people upgrade gears to +7 for profit?
Post by: dfdarkraiden on September 29, 2008, 04:56:04 pm

Oh well, another unprofitable business.