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Print Page - Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?

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The 'Other' Section => AnesisRO Archive => Archive => General Questions => Topic started by: exDragon on September 18, 2010, 11:12:12 am

Title: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: exDragon on September 18, 2010, 11:12:12 am
There are people that have not gotten a single +8 out of 100 armors.  It should average to 17.361(value wrong, should be 52.08 so not as bad as I thought) armors per one +8.  I my self have seen +5 and +6 working correctly but when you try to go to +7, you get a chance far lower then 40% chance.  Taking 20 armors from +6 to +7 only 3 out of 20 of them actually made it to +7.   That is 15%.  That only has a 1.235% chance of even occuring assuming the chances of success is 40%  (The chances of getting 3 or less success out of 20 items are 1.596%).    I know twenty examples is rather small but taken with consideration of 100 armors and no +8 makes me wonder.  I have also seen a lot of other people reporting it being harder to make overups.
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: exDragon on September 18, 2010, 11:20:57 am
delete repeat
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: exDragon on September 18, 2010, 11:22:51 am
delete repeat
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Teggit on September 18, 2010, 11:24:12 am
I would be inclined to agree with your observations.
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: DreamerP on September 18, 2010, 11:32:40 am
I kind of want to agree but I'm pretty unlucky so yea maybe there is something off  ???
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Talvi on September 19, 2010, 04:09:53 am
:O
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: pepesmith on September 19, 2010, 04:26:58 am
I agree!...

I have upped 27glits only 3 got +7... and none to +8... :'(
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Valentin on September 19, 2010, 05:25:42 am
Hey hows that new money sink you're working on doing Talis?
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Razer on September 19, 2010, 05:47:10 am
Never made a +8 ever in aRO. +7 is pretty epic for me. Doesnt matter - the harder it is the more its worth lol.
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Xia Xue on September 19, 2010, 09:22:26 am
people selling +8 stuffs must be really lucky i guess :(
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: dailydaily on September 19, 2010, 10:52:14 am
i upped morning .. 3 stone bucklers .. 2 made to +7, but i broke them both trying a +8. Yesterday, upped one +7 and got to +8. I may be lucky, but the system is really making stuff difficult. !!

i agree with u !
i got a +8 stone buckler for sale - 38mil :)
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Razer on September 19, 2010, 10:55:46 am
I am happy selling +7s :)
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: pranetcoolman on September 19, 2010, 01:01:42 pm
I am happy selling +7s :)
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Johnsu on September 19, 2010, 01:41:37 pm
I am happy selling +4s :)

Fixed for me :(
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: crusaderforjustice on September 19, 2010, 06:46:43 pm
armors are probably treated one by one, so one piece of equipment wouldnt affect another
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Linmakana on September 19, 2010, 06:50:14 pm
I am happy using +4s :)
Fixed for me  :(
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: dailydaily on September 20, 2010, 01:48:40 am
armors are probably treated one by one, so one piece of equipment wouldnt affect another


it does !!
that s why the probability comes to play .. each armor have 40% chance, still it means, 4 out of 10 should make !!
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Fidelis on September 20, 2010, 03:49:09 am
armors are probably treated one by one, so one piece of equipment wouldnt affect another


it does !!
that s why the probability comes to play .. each armor have 40% chance, still it means, 4 out of 10 should make !!

No, that's not what probability means. It means that it's possible to get ten +7 ... +8 armors (not sure what you're talking about), but it's also possible to get no armors at all, to destroy all of them. 40% is just the average when you try it with a high number of armors, let's say 1000000, then you should get around 400000 successfully upped armors. 10 is a far too small number for statistics.
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: exDragon on September 20, 2010, 10:18:34 am
For upgrading and set of 20 +6 armors to +7 with an average of 40% success rate on each armor the chances of:

0 success:   0.00365616% chance
1 success:   0.0487488% chance
2 success:   0.3087423% chance
3 success:   1.2349691% chance
4 success:   3.499079% chance
5 success:   7.464702% chance
6 success:   12.4411699% chance
7 success:  16.5882266% chance
8 success:  17.9705788% chance
9 success:  15.9738478% chance
10 success: 11.7141551% chance
11 success: 7.0994879% chance
12 success: 3.549744% chance
13 success: 1.4563052% chance
14 success: 0.4854351% chance
15 success: 0.1294494% chance
16 success: 0.0269686% chance
17 success: 0.00423037% chance
18 success: 0.000470041% chance
19 success: 0.0000329853% chance
20 success: 0.00000109951% chance


I just found it strange my random testing led me to the bottom 1.596% of this table so when I heard other people also noticing something I thought I should ask.
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: Waylander on September 20, 2010, 05:35:37 pm
Ya, it seems like somethings wrong here because many ppl (including myself) have noticed that the odds are worse than they should be.
Now, with a bunch of ppl trying to overup and failing miserably I think that u'd be able to see something fishy here o.o
Either many ppl are very unlucky or theirs something messed up with the refining system.
Title: Re: Is there a problem with overuping armor chances?
Post by: hunksurvivorx on September 21, 2010, 05:22:47 pm
refining system is dead o.o, omg i refined 1m odin blessing and none +6